Did you know that about 1 in 8 of the world’s trees grown in the Amazon, making it the largest remaining continuous rain forest on Earth. The greatest risk to the Amazonian Rain Forest has been deforestation. By 2013 it had lost an estimated 11 percent of its original extent due to land clearing. By 2050, the business-as-usual scenario used in a recent study suggests that this number might reach a devastating 40 percent.
Unfortunately, this is not the only thing affecting the Amazon’s tree count. Climate change is impacting the ability of many tree species to survive. Researchers in Brazil and the Netherlands did a study presenting an analysis that combines a number of scenarios for climate change and deforestation. They predict, that by 2050, the average number of trees in the Amazonian Rain Forest could decline by as much as 58%. They also estimate that roughly one in three trees of the more than 6,000 species would become critically endangered or go extinct.
First off, the scientists created maps showing where each species is likely to occur today. Then, they layered those maps on top of one another. This allowed the researchers to calculate how many tree species are present currently in the Amazon. They were able to do this within areas of 10 by 10 kilometers. Currently, they have determined that about 1,500 of the 6,394 trees in the Amazon have sufficient data available.
Knowing where the trees were found helped the researchers in figuring out the temperature and rain fall patterns that a tree species was comfortable with. They then created new maps which predicted where the species’ current ranges would still likely have the same conditions then as they do today. By layering these new maps, the researchers determined that climate change might result in a 31 to 37 percent decline in the average number of species found in any one area.
Then, when you add in business-as-usual deforestation rates to the model, researchers predict a loss of another 20 percent. This would give any one species about a 58 percent reduction in any given fragment by 2050. Of course, this is devastating news. Unfortunately, the estimates are very realistic and current efforts to limit global warming are just ineffective.
If deforestation continues at its usual pace, by 2050, the Amazon could be cut in two. The northwestern half, which is further away from the deforestation front will remain continuous for the most part. Unfortunately, the southeastern half will be heavily fragmented that hardly any continuous patch of forest will remain. In the northern and central areas, where much less deforestation occurs, the study suggest that climate change will pose greater risks for species, especially those that are drought-sensitive.
Regardless of whether it’s climate change or deforestation, the Amazon is expected to radically change by 2050. There’s not much, it would seem, that we can do to change this fact. What effects this will have on the forest are just beginning to be analyzed. What effects it will have on the world itself have not been investigated as of yet.
We know that this article is pretty sobering. However, we need to be aware of these harsh facts because they will affect us and fairly soon. We hope that you read this articles in the spirit they are intended – for educational and informational purposes only. They are not an indictment on climate change measures. Please keep reading our blog for more information on trees.
